If you had – God forbid - slipped on the dog’s squeaky toy and hit your head on the way down and lapsed into a 30-day coma, you would be excused if you woke up and looked at your account balance and concluded that nothing much happened in April.
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Sure, SPY is down around -1.0%, you say. But half the strategies are green for the month and NBC’s Lester Holt is showing a video of a barefoot Marine veteran wrestling an alligator on the Nightly News.

​What you missed, however, was a…

Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again trade war whipsawed financial markets in March, triggering an end-of-the-month sell-off on Wall Street. As I write these words, the S&P 500 has lost over 6.0% for the month and the Nasdaq is down nearly 9.0%. The Dow Industrials suffered the least, but the stalwart index of blue-chip companies is still off more than 4.0%.
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It’s been a mixed bag for the strategies, with Bond Bulls, Global Trader and The 12% Solution holding up relatively well, and the more aggressive strategies (Five Stocks, White Knuckle and American Muscle) taking it on the chin. Of note, while Five Stocks largely holds on to powerhouse names and rides out short-term storms, the Knuckles and the Muscles are positioning themselves for more trouble ahead with larger stakes in U.S. Treasuries. 

Thursday morning the market opened with promise. Nvidia, the 800-pound gorilla that has become the bellwether for all things AI, had posted earnings the night before, exceeding fourth-quarter estimates on the top and bottom lines and issuing strong guidance. Commentary ranged from “a blowout” to “a nothingburger.” Either way, investors exhaled. The stock was up 2% and change.

Then, in a post on Truth Social, the President announced that tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada, which had been on hold for a month (and that many thought would disappear), will take effect on March 4. Trump also said that China would face an additional 10% levy on top of 10% tariffs already in place.

And away goes the promise. Nvidia would close down 8.5% for the day with the rest of the market in hot pursuit.

The Chinese app had been flying under the radar for a few weeks, but it surfaced in a big way over the weekend of January 25-26. By Monday, it was clear this was going to be a market game-changer. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 sank 3% lead by none other than Nvidia – down 17% for the day and resulting in a market cap loss of close to $600 billion, the biggest drop ever for a U.S. company.

To put that in perspective, Nvidia’s decline is more than double the entire market cap of Coca-Cola and Chevron. In a single day, Nvidia sank from number one to the third most-valuable public company, behind Apple and Microsoft.

Even as December limped to a close - no Santa Claus rally in sight - the fervor surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) left its mark in 2024, powering significant gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

​Further stoking the fire: the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on three separate occasions in the latter half of the year. Stocks also rallied sharply following Trump's win in November, as traders factored in the expectation for lower taxes and a looser regulatory approach under a Republican administration.

The S&P 500 ended 2024 with an annual gain of about 23% after rising by 24% in 2023, marking the first time since 1997 and 1998 that the index has closed with back-to-back gains of above 20%.
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Those are the headlines for the year. But there’s more to a market than headlines. Let’s get some perspective. 

And the clear winner is… the U.S. stock market.
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The U.S. Presidential elections left the country divided between grief and elation. But the stock market, that cold, calculating, emotionless creature, powered to new heights partly on relief that the election result was quick and orderly, and partly on the hope of reduced regulations and a more favorable business climate from an incoming Trump administration.

​That’s the hope. Reality, on the other hand, may prove more complicated.  
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Reality: One Example.

​When the President-elect announced at month’s end his intentions to impose steep tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China on his first day in office, shares of U.S. and European automakers took an immediate hit; GM falling 9% the next day. 

​October started out surprisingly strong, with the market roaring into mid-month. Then the chop began, and the downslide.

​As I write, the S&P 500 is rapidly heading back to the flat line for the month. Most of the strategies suffered as well, largely attributable to a failing bond hedge. 

​The Surge in Treasury Yields

Since the Federal Reserve cut short-term rates by half a percentage point on September 19, the 10-year Treasury yield has gone from 3.6% to 4.2%.  Bond funds have an inverse relationship to yields. Case in point: TLT, the 20-year Treasury Bond ETF. Since that Fed rate cut, TLT has dropped 7%. That was not something the market was expecting, and most of our strategies were on the wrong side of that trade.

It was a rocky start to September. Nvidia plunged 9% on the very first trading day of the month. Roping in the last week of August, investors dumped stocks at their fastest pace since November 2020. Selling was led by institutional investors and hedge funds. Although to be fair, ETFs saw unusually high inflows throughout August.
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Why the selloff in stocks? The latest economic data – especially regarding the labor market - implied slowing growth for the U.S. economy. Fears reemerged that the Fed was behind the curve and the U.S. was heading for a recession. That’s right – recession. The boogeyman that refuses to die and haunts and taunts investors until sleep is elusive and portfolios can only be opened in the company of a stiff drink. 

The selling started on day one. On day three, a weakening U.S. jobs market sparked concerns over a possible recession, and a popular hedge fund trade linked to the Japanese yen blew up. The S&P 500 lost 3% and the Dow plunged more than 1,000 points - its worst sell-off in two years.

​Within the first three trading days of August, the Nasdaq had entered correction mode (down 10%). Apple was down 12%. Tech bellwether Nvidia was crashing more than 20%.

The roller coaster train had disengaged from the lift and down we were going, gravity at its most terrifying. 

​This has been painful.

​Before today, the Nasdaq was down -9.0% from its most recent high – just 15 days ago. The S&P 500 down -4.0% over the same two weeks. But for American Muscle, no strategy got out of July unscathed. What went wrong? 

The Great Rotation

One major U.S. index that was not struggling in July was the Russell 2000. It’s a market index composed of 2,000 smaller U.S. companies, and so far in July, the Russell 2000 has outperformed the Nasdaq by 12.8 percentage points. It’s on pace for its largest monthly lead since February 2001.