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The White Knuckle Leveraged Trading Strategy
At its core, The White Knuckle is a risk-parity strategy for 3 of the most volatile names in market: each a 3x leveraged ETF. A leveraged ETF is a fund that uses financial derivatives and debt to amplify the returns of an underlying index. -- Investopedia.com
For a 3x ETF, if the underlying index returns 1% on a given day, the fund would theoretically return 3%. Theoretical though, as management fees and transaction costs (which are high) diminish the full effects of leverage. The real rub? The 3:1 ratio works in the opposite direction as well. If the index drops 1%, the loss would then be 3%. |
Strategy Assets
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Just to be clear, these are primarily vehicles for the day-trading crowd. To buy one of these 3x funds with the intention of blindly holding on for a month is borderline nuts. So, what in the world am I doing buying three? Well, let's see how this works out.
Of the 3 leveraged ETFs in this portfolio, one customarily acts as a hedge to the other two, providing a modicum of balance to begin with. By the way, here are the funds in question:
The last one on the list, TMF, is basically long-term bonds on steroids. Over time, long-term bond funds have tended to have an inverse relationship with U.S. equities, of which SPXL and TQQQ represent in spades. But a word to the wise: in the stock market, as in the world at large, things are not always certain. Should all 3 funds decide to go down in unison, the results can be ugly. I try to mitigate some of that potential ugliness with risk-parity. What is Risk-Parity? Assets come with their own risk profile, which is influenced by the market and changes with time. A common example is stock and bonds; stocks are generally considered more risky than bonds. If an investor in these two assets wanted to keep the overall risk in his portfolio constant, all other things being equal, he or she would own more bonds than stocks. Then periodically reevaluate, and maybe add to stocks and subtract from bonds, or vice versa, all the while working to keep the overall risk constant. That's risk-parity; holding different assets and periodically changing the portion of each asset owned to keep the overall risk constant. On Wall Street, the higher the volatility, the riskier the asset. When the volatility of equities spike, risk-parity traders move to exchange some of their stock holdings for bonds. Likewise, when volatility rattles the bond market, these traders reverse course and exchange bonds for stocks. So, using volatility as our gauge, risk-parity overweights securities with lower-than-average volatility, and underweights securities with higher-than average volatility. For our purposes, this weighing mechanism is recalculated each month, and each fund is assigned a percentage that takes into account its relative volatility. For example, if volatility increases in the equity markets, implying an increased risk of a downturn, risk-parity would give more weight to the bond fund TMF and less to the equity funds SPXL and TQQQ. Finished? Not quite. In an effort to further reduce the risk inherent in owning these 3 funds, risk-parity notwithstanding, I added a "part-time" hedge that brings the following currency funds into play:
I say "part-time" hedge because it doesn't always kick in. I'll explain. |
The Mechanics
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Once a month, the strategy conducts a risk-parity calculation on the 3x leveraged ETFs to determine the percentage each should occupy in the portfolio going forward.
But before it signs off, it takes a look at the 3 currency funds. If currencies exhibit momentum strength over the leveraged funds, the hedge kicks in and the top-performing currency fund will be selected to represent 50% of the portfolio. The remainder will be divvied up among the leveraged funds with a variable allocation. Why all the gymnastics? Because I didn't want to commit 3 leveraged ETFs to 100% of the portfolio if I could hedge a portion of that with an alternative, especially when that alternative acts to reduce overall strategy volatility and max drawdown (maxDD). So there it is. At any given time, The White Knuckle portfolio holds 3 leveraged ETFs of varying proportions that collectively make up either 100% of the portfolio, or 50% of the portfolio with the other half in a currency hedge for protection. Benchmark: SPY (the ETF that tracks the S&P 500 Index) is used as the benchmark by which we'll judge the performance of The White Knuckle.  Click to enlarge.
Performance notes: Because of the inception date of some of the ETFs in this strategy, I could only backtest to 2011. Not as much time as I would like.
Volatility has reached 21.8% compared to SPY at 14.5%. MaxDD is roughly equivalent to the benchmark. And returns? The strategy has delivered a total return of more than 1,691% vs. 131.5% for SPY over the same 8-year period. Note: while the strategy fades higher-risk equity funds and increases allocation into the relative safety of bonds in the event of broad market downturns, nothing short of perpetually holding cash or cash ETFs will protect in the event of a flash crash or a sudden jolt to equity or bond markets. That said, the pain from most market downturns (i.e. recessions, bursting bubbles, market corrections) can be mitigated by a strategy that can move to relative safety within weeks. |
What You Get
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Before the market opens on the first trading day of the month, you'll receive an email newsletter detailing the same actionable buy/sell signals that I will use to trade the strategy in my portfolio.
See a sample email newsletter to the right >>> Subscribers also gain access to the Members Page, offering up more strategy details, month-to-month performance data, and an FAQ specific to the strategy. |
Ready? |
The White Knuckle Strategy is $7.95 per month. Cancel at any time. Follow along and see how the strategy catches market moves to the upside, while protecting hard-earned portfolios against major downdrafts.
First 2 months are FREE. Go to the subscription page to SIGN UP. |