Rules-Based ETF Trading Strategies

Comparing The Models

There's always a bull market somewhere. Whether you're into bonds, want a little international exposure, or focused squarely on the U.S. equity market, the asset class rotation strategies below will help you find it.
About Diversification
While all the models include adaptive hedging mechanisms to help protect during market downturns, I strongly recommend employing multiple strategies (mine or yours) within your overall investment portfolio - for diversification and improved risk management.

In fact, I feel so strongly about this diversification angle that I offer a significant discount for multiple strategies. See my package plans on the Pricing Page.
About the Data
All performance figures and metrics are based on 2008 to 2023 with the exception of The White Knuckle and The Zen Knuckle, which are calculated from 2011 to 2023. Tables updated monthly.

-- Click photos for an in-depth look at the strategy.
-- Click tables to enlarge.
2023 YTD - All Strategies
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In The Spotlight...

American Muscle Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
NOTE: Asset allocations are one month behind. Subscribe for current month.

American Muscle

(U.S. Equities, U.S. Bonds)
BEAT the S&P 500
20.6% CAGR over 15+ years
Volatility: 15.6%
Max DD: -19.0%
The American Muscle Strategy is split 30/70. The 30% invests in QQQ and TLT according to a risk-parity calculation. The 70% toggles between select equity assets or safe-haven funds, depending on market sentiment.
With a GDP of over $19 trillion dollars, the U.S. economy is the envy of the world. American Muscle taps the best of that economic engine each month.

Subscribers have access to a variation of the strategy, one without a stock component (lowering risk). Either way, this is a top-producing model with a reasonable risk/reward ratio. 

​See full description>
Five Stocks Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
NOTE: Asset allocations are one month behind. Subscribe for current month.

Five Stocks

(Dual Momentum Stock Picking)
BEAT the S&P 500
40.9% CAGR over 15+ years
Volatility: 25.6%
Max DD: -39.3%
Five Stocks provides a rules-based algorithm specifically tuned to stock selection while providing some crash protection in bear markets. 

The model employs a textbook dual momentum formula to identify up to 5 monthly stock picks. A cash trigger helps mitigate risk.
The strategy combines well with more conservative strategies like Bond Bulls, Lean Muscle, and our non-U.S. equity strategy Global Trader.

​Tapping individual names from the ​Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the S&P 500, it's an excellent way to play the cream of the crop of U.S. stocks.

See full description>
Bond Bull Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
NOTE: Asset allocations are one month behind. Subscribe for current month.

Bond Bulls

​(Rotating Bonds w/Hedge)
BEAT the S&P 500
9.5% CAGR over 15+ years
Volatility: 7.0%
Max DD: -7.8%
The Bond Bulls Strategy splits its portfolio into 80/20. The 80% invests in 1-2 bond ETFs. The 20% is a hedge and consists of a single fund from the likes of currencies, mortgage-backed securities, and utilities. Rebalancing is monthly.
​This is my "safest" strategy, the one with the lowest volatility and the least max drawdown of the 4 offered. While returns are more modest, it still comes within striking distance of the S&P 500 over a 15-year backtest.

For those who wish to compete with the street and sleep well at night regardless of market conditions, this makes an excellent core strategy. 

​See full description>
Global Trader Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
NOTE: Asset allocations are one month behind. Subscribe for current month.

Global Trader

(International Plus Domestic)
BEAT the S&P 500
17.0% CAGR over 15+ years
Volatility: 15.2%
Max DD: -17.3%
Global Trader rotates between broad-based international and domestic ETFs, as well as global sector funds like healthcare, utilities, energy, and more. 

In global downturns, equities are replaced with currency or bond funds. 
The strategy holds up to 3 assets at a time and rebalances monthly. 

​Tapping both international broad-market and sector funds, Global Trader provides the broadest geographic diversification of the models.

For the investor who wants to add international exposure - but only when outperforming the U.S. market. 

​See full description>
White Knuckle Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
NOTE: Asset allocations are one month behind. Subscribe for current month.

The White Knuckle

(Leverage, with Treasury Hedge)
BEAT the S&P 500
33.1% CAGR over 12+ years
Volatility: 22.6%
Max DD: -41.5%
The White Knuckle Strategy is my most aggressive ETF model, trading 3x leveraged ETFs - including a leveraged bond fund. I've mitigated some of that aggression by utilizing risk-parity.

A currency hedge inserted at strategic times further calms the waters.
That said, with a volatility of more than 22%, it can be a wild ride. For that reason, I don't advocate the strategy taking up more than 5-15% of your portfolio.

However, it does combine well with more conservative models to form a balanced portfolio. See full description>

​Side note: Cut the risk considerably with the new Zen Knuckle, included. 
Zen Knuckle Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
NOTE: Asset allocations are one month behind. Subscribe for current month.

The Zen Knuckle

(Leverage, with Volatility Hedge)
BEAT the S&P 500
26.6% CAGR over 12+ years
Volatility: 16.9%
Max DD: -21.2%
Modeled on the original White Knuckle, The Zen makes a change to the mix of funds in the 'Risk-Parity' portion of that strategy, swapping out the leveraged bond fund for a volatility ETF.

The result? Average annual returns approaching 27% - at half the risk. In short, a calmer, gentler ride. 
The Zen has proven itself in a rising interest rate environment, with the stabilizing influence of the volatility ETF ever at the ready in the event of sudden equity downdrafts. 

Still, when Treasuries provide an adequate hedge to equities, the White Knuckle should deliver more alpha. 

​But for those seeking high returns and relative safety, The Zen is hard to beat. 

See full description>
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Free Trial/Cancellation Policy:
For the individual investor, my service comes with an unconditional 60-day free trial for first-time subscribers. If you are not completely satisfied for any reason in the first 2 months, simply unsubscribe and owe nothing. Two months should give you a chance to receive a couple of newsletters with trade alerts, and fully explore the Members Pages for your selected strategies.

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See the monthly fees for individual strategies and package plans on the Pricing Page. 
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