Rules-Based ETF and Stock Trading Strategies

Comparing The Models

There's always a bull market somewhere. Whether you're into bonds, want a little international exposure, or focused squarely on the U.S. equity market, the asset class rotation strategies below will help you find it.
About Diversification
While all the models but one include adaptive hedging mechanisms to help protect during market downturns, I strongly recommend employing multiple strategies (mine or yours) within your overall investment portfolio - for diversification and improved risk management.

In fact, I feel so strongly about this diversification angle that I offer a significant discount for multiple strategies. See my package plans on the Pricing Page.
About the Data
All performance figures and metrics are based on 2008 to current YTD with the exception of The White Knuckle and The Zen Knuckle, which are calculated from 2011 to current YTD. Tables updated monthly.

-- Click photos for an in-depth look at the strategy.
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Total Returns - All Strategies
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2025
2024 YTD - All Strategies
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Ranked by performance year-to-date 2025...

White Knuckle Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
NOTE: Asset allocations are one month behind. Subscribe for current month.

The White Knuckle

(Leverage, with Treasury Hedge)
BEAT the S&P 500
31.1% CAGR over 14+ years
Volatility: 22.3%
Max DD: -41.5%
The White Knuckle Strategy is my most aggressive ETF model, trading 3x leveraged ETFs - including a leveraged bond fund. I've mitigated some of that aggression by utilizing risk-parity.

A currency hedge inserted at strategic times further calms the waters.
That said, with a volatility of more than 22%, it can be a wild ride. For that reason, I don't advocate the strategy taking up more than 5-15% of your portfolio.

However, it does combine well with more conservative models to form a balanced portfolio. See full description>

​Side note: Cut the risk considerably with the new Zen Knuckle, included. 
Bond Bull Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
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Bond Bulls SORTINO

​(Risk-Adjusted w/Hedging)
BEAT the S&P 500
9.0% CAGR over 17+ years
Volatility: 5.9%
Max DD: -10.8%
Bond Bulls SORTINO invests in 4 ETFs each month from a diverse portfolio of bonds, currency hedges, and utilities.

A variation of the original Bond Bulls strategy, this model uses risk-adjusted returns to identify its monthly picks.
​The Bulls are my "safest" strategies with the lowest volatility and the least max drawdown of the 5+ offered.

Compete with the street and sleep well at night regardless of market conditions. An excellent core strategy. 

Expected to replace Bond Bulls in 2025.

​Full description coming soon>
Zen Knuckle Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
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The Zen Knuckle

(Leverage, with Volatility Hedge)
BEAT the S&P 500
25.4% CAGR over 14+ years
Volatility: 16.7%
Max DD: -21.2%
Modeled on the original White Knuckle, The Zen makes a change to the mix of funds in the 'Risk-Parity' portion of that strategy, swapping out the leveraged bond fund for a volatility ETF.

The result? Average annual returns around 26% - at half the risk. In short, a calmer, gentler ride. 
The Zen has proven itself in a rising interest rate environment, with the stabilizing influence of the volatility ETF ever at the ready in the event of sudden equity downdrafts. 

Still, when Treasuries provide an adequate hedge to equities, the White Knuckle should deliver more alpha. 

​But for those seeking high returns and relative safety, The Zen is hard to beat. 

See full description>
Bond Bull Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
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Bond Bulls

​(Rotating Bonds w/Hedge)
BEAT the S&P 500
9.2% CAGR over 17+ years
Volatility: 6.9%
Max DD: -7.8%
The Bond Bulls Strategy splits its portfolio into 80/20. The 80% invests monthly in 1-2 bond ETFs. The 20% is a hedge and consists of a single fund pulled from currencies, utilities, et al. 
​The Bulls are my "safest" strategies with the lowest volatility and the least max drawdown of the 5+ offered. 

For those who wish to compete with the street and sleep well at night regardless of market conditions, this makes an excellent core strategy. 

​See full description>
Global Trader Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
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Global Trader

(International Plus Domestic)
BEAT the S&P 500
15.1% CAGR over 17+ years
Volatility: 14.9%
Max DD: -19.9%
Global Trader rotates between broad-based international and domestic ETFs, as well as global sector funds like tech, healthcare, utilities, and more. 

In global downturns, equities are replaced with currency or bond funds. 
​Tapping both international broad-market and sector funds, Global Trader provides the broadest geographic diversification of the models.

And new in 2025, a Bitcoin ETF.

For the investor who wants to add international exposure - but only when outperforming the U.S. market. 

​See full description>
American Muscle Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
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American Muscle

(U.S. Equities, U.S. Bonds)
BEAT the S&P 500
20.2% CAGR over 17+ years
Volatility: 15.7%
Max DD: -19.0%
The American Muscle Strategy is split 30/70. The 30% invests in QQQ and TLT according to a risk-parity calculation. The 70% rotates primarily among U.S. broad-market and sector ETFs. There's even a [limited] stock component.
And if market sentiment turns negative, it's Treasury funds or safe-haven U.S. sector ETFs up to bat.

Subscribers have access to a variation of the strategy that doesn't have a stock component (Lean Muscle). Either way, this is a top-producing model with a reasonable risk/reward ratio. 

​See full description>
Five Stocks Strategy Trades - One Month Behind
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Five Stocks

(Risk-Adjusted Stock Picking)
BEAT the S&P 500
45.8% CAGR over 17+ years
Volatility: 25.1%
Max DD: -42.9%
Five Stocks provides a rules-based algorithm specifically tuned to stock selection.

Our only dedicated stock-picking model, Five Stocks focuses on risk-adjusted returns to identify 5 monthly stock picks. No cash trigger - it's all stocks, all the time.
The strategy combines well with more conservative, hedged strategies like Bond Bulls, Lean Muscle, and our non-U.S. equity strategy Global Trader.

​Tapping individual names from the ​Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500, and the Dow, it's an excellent way to play the cream of the crop of U.S. stocks.

New in 2025 - a variation that provides a "Black Swan" hedge for the strategy.

See full description>
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Free Trial/Cancellation Policy:
For the individual investor, my service comes with an unconditional 60-day free trial for first-time subscribers. If you are not completely satisfied for any reason in the first 2 months, simply unsubscribe and owe nothing. Two months should give you a chance to receive a couple of newsletters with trade alerts, and fully explore the Members Pages for your selected strategies.

And I make it easy to unsubscribe. To see how, visit the Contact Us page.

Once the 60-day free trial period is over, monthly billing will begin. You can cancel at any time by simply unsubscribing, or sending a cancellation request via the Contact Us page. Upon notification of cancellation, Trendline Profits will immediately stop charging your credit card and no additional charges will occur. Your subscription will remain active until the end of the period already paid for, unless your cancellation is within the 60-day free trial period. In that case, your subscription and all member access will end immediately. For more information, read the Terms of Use.

See the monthly fees for individual strategies and package plans on the Pricing Page. 
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