We create algorithmic trading strategies.
Are you a self-directed investor? Looking for more return and less risk? Hoping to do that with a minimal time commitment so trading doesn't take over your days and nights?You've come to the right place. Our algorithms integrate a broad range of asset categories -- from domestic and international stocks, to bonds, currencies, metals and more -- to create monthly trading strategies that optimize returns while reducing risk.
And because our machines do the heavy lifting, you don't have to.- How do we manage risk? For starters, most of our models are ETF trading strategies. Exchange-traded funds, by their very nature (baskets of assets), reduce a good portion of the risk inherent in owning individual securities. What else do we do?
Filter For Strength. We employ relative strength (momentum) algorithms and moving average filters to identify strong assets -- and avoid the weak. And in two models, we add a risk-parity calculation to help equalize risk among non-correlated assets.
Safety Trigger. Each strategy includes a "flight-to-safety" trigger that moves the bulk of the portfolio into safer assets like bond funds, currency ETFs, or cash in the event of a significant market downturn.
In Sum, risk is reduced by consistently dumping or downsizing underperforming assets and focusing on winners. And sometimes, that winner is simply cash. What does a subscription buy?
Newsletters
Once a month, we send out trade signals in the form of an email newsletter. Each strategy has its own newsletter. Subscribers can then use those signals to trade their selected strategies in their own brokerage accounts.
For example, if you had been trading Bond Bulls and Five Stocks for April 2023, you would have sold the prior month's holdings, and then bought IGOV, JNK, and PCY (Bond Bulls) and AMD, INTC, META, MSFT and NVDA (Five Stocks) in the proportions indicated in the newsletters. Rinse and repeat next month.
Members Pages
The monthly newsletters are really all you need to implement the strategies. But for those who would like to dig a little deeper into the data or check progress daily, subscribers can access the models' exclusive Members Pages. Here you'll find a downloadable version of the most recent newsletter, total return charts dating back to the inception of the strategy, trade history tables, and more.
Allocation Calculator
Remembers those ETFs and stocks we needed to buy for April 2023? For subscribers, our Allocation Calculator makes short work of figuring out the exact dollar amount of each that we need to buy. Click, click, click, done.
Support
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Our Five Primary Strategies...
See our Compare Strategies page for summaries, annual returns, risk metrics, and more.
Click for full description pageFive Stocks
(Dual Momentum Stock Picking)
BEAT the S&P 500
38.2% CAGR over 16+ years
Total Return = 22,405.5% since 2008
Click for full description pageThe White Knuckle
(Leverage, w/Treasury Hedge)
BEAT the S&P 500
32.7% CAGR over 13+ years
Total Return = 4,740.1% since 2011
Click for full description pageAmerican Muscle
(U.S. Equities, U.S. Bonds)
BEAT the S&P 500
20.5% CAGR over 16+ years
Total Return = 2,151.4% since 2008
Click for full description pageGlobal Trader
(International Plus Domestic)
BEAT the S&P 500
16.1% CAGR over 16+ years
Total Return = 1,106.5% since 2008
Click for full description pageBond Bulls
(Rotating Bonds w/Hedge)
BEAT the S&P 500
9.5% CAGR over 16+ years
Total Return = 358.0% since 2008- The benchmarks we use to gauge
strategy performance...
The S&P 500 Index
(via the popular ETF SPY)
10.6% CAGR over 16+ years
Total Return = 440.2% since 2008
U.S. Aggregate Bond Index
(via the popular ETF AGG)
2.9% CAGR over 16+ years
Total Return = 60.7% since 2008
Numbers as of 10/01/2024
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
Total Return includes reinvestment of dividends and distributions.
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
Total Return includes reinvestment of dividends and distributions.
Not for everyone.
Understand that these strategies are not for everyone. They're designed for the self-directed investor who appreciates that there is no 'get rich quick'. These are long-term, wealth-building strategies and need to be looked at as such.
In addition, one's risk tolerance needs to be taken into account. The risk profiles of Bond Bulls and White Knuckle are quite different, and the historical returns (9% vs. 32% CAGR) are commensurate with that risk.
Finally, investors need to have a brokerage account, at least some experience placing buy and sell orders, and the ability to carve out 30-45 minutes a month to place trades as per the newsletters.
In addition, one's risk tolerance needs to be taken into account. The risk profiles of Bond Bulls and White Knuckle are quite different, and the historical returns (9% vs. 32% CAGR) are commensurate with that risk.
Finally, investors need to have a brokerage account, at least some experience placing buy and sell orders, and the ability to carve out 30-45 minutes a month to place trades as per the newsletters.
What to do next?
So far, so good? Here are the next steps...
Look over the strategies. See if one or two (or three or four) of the models might be a match for your investing goals. Each strategy has its own detail page. See the main menu above, or click one of the links below. Or jump to the Compare Strategies page to see a summary of all the models lined up in a row. |
Subscribe. The cost is $14.95 per month for one of our single strategies. That gets you the monthly newsletter with buy and sell signals, and access to the strategy's exclusive Members Page packed with additional data. Or, subscribe to a package of 3, 4 or 5 strategies. The latter, our MAX Pak, is priced at $24.95/mo. and includes the new Five Stocks strategy. Whether you choose a single strategy or a package plan, the first 2 months are free. See the full lineup on the Pricing Page. |
Kick back and relax. You've just tapped into some powerful algorithms. Let them do the heavy lifting. Your job? Watch for the monthly newsletters. They'll tell you what to buy for the upcoming month. And anytime you'd like more info, or you're curious as to what the strategies are thinking at the moment, you've got access to the Members Pages. Sweet. |
Frequently Asked Questions
What does it cost?
Three strategies are priced separately at $14.95 per month. For those readers interested in more than one strategy, there are package plans to choose from. The MAX Pak ropes everything in - including the stock-picking model Five Stocks - and is priced at $24.95/month, a considerable savings over purchasing the plans separately.
See the complete breakdown of pricing on the Pricing Page.
See the complete breakdown of pricing on the Pricing Page.
What do I get?
Each subscriber receives a monthly email newsletter detailing the trade signals for that particular strategy. Newsletters will typically arrive prior to the opening bell on the first trading day of the month, most often earlier (i.e. the evening prior). For reference, all of the strategies execute their trades at the close of that first trading day each month.
Subscribers also gain access to the Members Page, offering up strategy details, an FAQ specific to that model, long-term and YTD charts, and a detailed trade history including a running monthly performance of the strategy.
Subscribers also gain access to the Members Page, offering up strategy details, an FAQ specific to that model, long-term and YTD charts, and a detailed trade history including a running monthly performance of the strategy.
Which strategy is the best?
That depends - on an investor's comfort level with the assets in a particular strategy, tolerance for volatility, and time horizon. My highest producing ETF strategy (The White Knuckle) is also the most volatile. Meaning that the road to those high returns is frequently a white-knuckle roller coaster ride. Conversely, the strategy with the lowest volatility (Bond Bulls) also produces the lowest returns -- although it still comes within striking distance of the S&P 500 over time.
American Muscle is hard not to like; a juggernaut that taps key U.S. sectors as well as the three largest companies in the S&P 500. Risk is kept in check with a TLT hedge and a cash trigger that can move the bulk of the strategy into utilities, Treasuries, or cash during bear markets. For more conservative investors, its cousin, Lean Muscle, trades in ETFs only.
It bears mentioning that not every year is a stellar year for every strategy. There are years that Bond Bulls will triumph over White Knuckle, and vice versa. If an investor's time horizon is relatively short - 2 or 3 years - that investor might be well advised to stick with a strategy that has shown more consistent green on the screen than an investor who has ten years or more to work with.
So, which strategy is the best? For every investor it will be different. For most investors, a combination of 2 or 3 strategies makes the most sense. For me, I've spread my funds over all the strategies detailed within these pages.
[Tip: the MAX Pak package plan gives you access to all the strategies at a significant discount. Find it on the Pricing Page.]
American Muscle is hard not to like; a juggernaut that taps key U.S. sectors as well as the three largest companies in the S&P 500. Risk is kept in check with a TLT hedge and a cash trigger that can move the bulk of the strategy into utilities, Treasuries, or cash during bear markets. For more conservative investors, its cousin, Lean Muscle, trades in ETFs only.
It bears mentioning that not every year is a stellar year for every strategy. There are years that Bond Bulls will triumph over White Knuckle, and vice versa. If an investor's time horizon is relatively short - 2 or 3 years - that investor might be well advised to stick with a strategy that has shown more consistent green on the screen than an investor who has ten years or more to work with.
So, which strategy is the best? For every investor it will be different. For most investors, a combination of 2 or 3 strategies makes the most sense. For me, I've spread my funds over all the strategies detailed within these pages.
[Tip: the MAX Pak package plan gives you access to all the strategies at a significant discount. Find it on the Pricing Page.]
Am I investing my money directly with you?
No. I'm not a broker, a hedge fund, or a money manager. I develop algorithmic trading models combining diverse asset classes with the goal of maximizing risk-adjusted returns. These models generate trade signals which I provide in monthly newsletters to subscribers. Subscribers, if they wish, can then use those signals to place their own trades in their own brokerage accounts.
Subscribers who wish to trade the strategies will need to have an established brokerage account and be familiar with the mechanics of trading.
Subscribers who wish to trade the strategies will need to have an established brokerage account and be familiar with the mechanics of trading.
Do you offer a guarantee?
No and no.
No, in that my services bill month-to-month and there is no refund for payments made, nor is there any 'guarantee' that you will be happy or satisfied with the service. That said, you can cancel at any time and no further charges will be incurred. And while I don't offer refunds or satisfaction guarantees for the service, individual investors using the service for the first time receive the first 2 months free of charge on all subscription plans. I feel that provides sufficient time to judge the value of the service, and see if it would be an appropriate addition to your investment plans.
And no, in that I can't guarantee that you will make money from information gleaned from my services. Remember the first law of investing: past performance is no guarantee of future results. So I can't guarantee how much money -- if any -- you'll make with any information I provide. As every fund manager, financial counselor, broker and prospectus will tell you, "you invest at your own risk."
And speaking of "first laws," the first law of this website is acceptance of my Terms of Use and Disclaimer statement, both of which can be found through links at the page footer, or in the menu under "Company" at the top of the page.
No, in that my services bill month-to-month and there is no refund for payments made, nor is there any 'guarantee' that you will be happy or satisfied with the service. That said, you can cancel at any time and no further charges will be incurred. And while I don't offer refunds or satisfaction guarantees for the service, individual investors using the service for the first time receive the first 2 months free of charge on all subscription plans. I feel that provides sufficient time to judge the value of the service, and see if it would be an appropriate addition to your investment plans.
And no, in that I can't guarantee that you will make money from information gleaned from my services. Remember the first law of investing: past performance is no guarantee of future results. So I can't guarantee how much money -- if any -- you'll make with any information I provide. As every fund manager, financial counselor, broker and prospectus will tell you, "you invest at your own risk."
And speaking of "first laws," the first law of this website is acceptance of my Terms of Use and Disclaimer statement, both of which can be found through links at the page footer, or in the menu under "Company" at the top of the page.
Do your strategies ever change?
Short answer: yes.
Each of the subscription models will periodically undergo modifications. These can be changes to the models' assets (the funds that are traded) or the parameters that dictate the trades. An ETF may be delisted by its provider and need to be replaced. A blend of funds may no longer provide the hedge they used to. I may see an opportunity to adjust the parameters to improve returns or lessen the risk of the strategy.
No strategy should be carved in stone; it should be allowed to evolve to meet new and changing market demands. The overarching goals remain: keeping performance levels as high as possible given the risk metrics.
Should a change in mechanical rules or composition of assets become necessary, backtested performance results may also need to be updated. I will announce any such changes on the Members Pages, and note the particulars. In addition, a log of performance data -- pre-modification -- is always available for reference.
Each of the subscription models will periodically undergo modifications. These can be changes to the models' assets (the funds that are traded) or the parameters that dictate the trades. An ETF may be delisted by its provider and need to be replaced. A blend of funds may no longer provide the hedge they used to. I may see an opportunity to adjust the parameters to improve returns or lessen the risk of the strategy.
No strategy should be carved in stone; it should be allowed to evolve to meet new and changing market demands. The overarching goals remain: keeping performance levels as high as possible given the risk metrics.
Should a change in mechanical rules or composition of assets become necessary, backtested performance results may also need to be updated. I will announce any such changes on the Members Pages, and note the particulars. In addition, a log of performance data -- pre-modification -- is always available for reference.
Are the results you post based on actual live trading, or is it backtested data?
All the performance results you see on the website are technically backtested results, even though live trading in most of the strategies has been ongoing since Jan 1, 2019. By backtested results, it means I use each strategy's algorithm to display the returns, the volatility, the drawdowns, and the like - whether looking back one day, one month, or ten years.
Why post backtested results vs. live trading results? Because backtested results represent each strategy in its purest form.
For example, the algorithm behind a model always executes its rebalancing trades at the close on the first trading day of the month. And it's those closing prices it uses in calculating returns, drawdowns, etc. On the other hand, live trading is subject to a number of variables depending on who is doing the trading. While it's certainly possible to emulate the model and rebalance at the close on the first trading day of the month, most folks (myself included) find it easier to place their trades prior to the close - sometimes hours earlier and at their convenience. As the market is always moving, if I make a trade at noon and the strategy makes the same trade at close, that four-hour price swing will either be to my advantage, or detriment, by the end of the month when the strategy posts results. So, I might beat the strategy or lag the strategy for the month - although such differences are usually slight over time.
Another example: humans have been know to panic (shocking!). If the market is going haywire on rebalancing day, a human investor might delay a trade for a day or two to see how things shake out. Or that human might decide to allocate a portion of the portfolio to cash (not a bad idea sometimes). Or that human might decide he knows better than the model which ETFs will fare better in the upcoming month, and switch to something else. Not so the algo. The algorithm is a cold-hearted machine that follows the plan, executes trades at precise times, and never succumbs to emotion when the going gets tough.
So, in the interest of accuracy and consistency, I use the algorithms when posting results. In my experience, and to sum things up, any differences between live and backtested data can be attributed to 1) the slight difference in execution times for the trades, and 2) whether or not one sticks with a particular strategy through thick and thin, as opposed to acting on emotion and trading in and out of the strategy.
Why post backtested results vs. live trading results? Because backtested results represent each strategy in its purest form.
For example, the algorithm behind a model always executes its rebalancing trades at the close on the first trading day of the month. And it's those closing prices it uses in calculating returns, drawdowns, etc. On the other hand, live trading is subject to a number of variables depending on who is doing the trading. While it's certainly possible to emulate the model and rebalance at the close on the first trading day of the month, most folks (myself included) find it easier to place their trades prior to the close - sometimes hours earlier and at their convenience. As the market is always moving, if I make a trade at noon and the strategy makes the same trade at close, that four-hour price swing will either be to my advantage, or detriment, by the end of the month when the strategy posts results. So, I might beat the strategy or lag the strategy for the month - although such differences are usually slight over time.
Another example: humans have been know to panic (shocking!). If the market is going haywire on rebalancing day, a human investor might delay a trade for a day or two to see how things shake out. Or that human might decide to allocate a portion of the portfolio to cash (not a bad idea sometimes). Or that human might decide he knows better than the model which ETFs will fare better in the upcoming month, and switch to something else. Not so the algo. The algorithm is a cold-hearted machine that follows the plan, executes trades at precise times, and never succumbs to emotion when the going gets tough.
So, in the interest of accuracy and consistency, I use the algorithms when posting results. In my experience, and to sum things up, any differences between live and backtested data can be attributed to 1) the slight difference in execution times for the trades, and 2) whether or not one sticks with a particular strategy through thick and thin, as opposed to acting on emotion and trading in and out of the strategy.
What do I have to do to get started?
Look over the strategies and find one (or more) you'd like to follow. A good place to start is the Compare Strategies page. Find something you like, then jump over to the Pricing Page.
Once signed up, sit back and begin receiving your monthly newsletters with buy/sell signals. And anytime you want to dig a little deeper, you can access the Members Pages for the strategies you've selected.
Once signed up, sit back and begin receiving your monthly newsletters with buy/sell signals. And anytime you want to dig a little deeper, you can access the Members Pages for the strategies you've selected.
See more FAQs HERE.
Trade like a machine, once a month. Then go live your life.