No Cake Walk For much of the fall, Wall Street carried itself with the breezy confidence of a marathoner already waving to the crowd before the finish line. A dovish Fed, a booming AI cycle, a tariff truce-in-progress with China, and year-end seasonality all pointed toward a smooth glide path into December. Plenty of analysts saw little but clear skies. Some even called for an early Santa Rally.
Instead, November reminded investors that markets don’t hand out cake just because you brought a fork.
Instead, November reminded investors that markets don’t hand out cake just because you brought a fork.
A mid-month wobble in megacap tech didn’t just interrupt the party — it flipped sentiment on its head. Nvidia, the market’s most important stock and chief mascot of the AI boom, logged sharp daily reversals. On Nov. 21, the Nasdaq swung from +2% at the open to –2% at the close — its biggest intraday reversal since April’s “Liberation Day” tariff panic.
And yet, despite the drama, the bull market bent without breaking. Buyers reemerged, Fed-cut expectations firmed, and Big Tech reclaimed some footing. As of the close on Friday, the Dow and the S&P 500 were basically flat on the month. The Nasdaq took the brunt of it, closing down almost 2%, on track to end a seven-month advance.
November Drivers
AI Reality Check
Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities’ Global Head of Technology Research, continues to reject the bubble narrative. Ives argues that with less than 5% of U.S. enterprises meaningfully adopting AI, the runway remains long — and that today’s leaders are generating “hundreds of billions in real revenue,” not vaporware.
His stance is categorical: “This is NOT an AI bubble… we believe this is a 1996 Moment and NOT a 1999 Bubble Moment and remain firmly bullish on tech stocks into year-end and 2026 despite recent investor bearish fears.”
As a caution, IG’s Chief Markets Strategist Chris Beauchamp highlighted the market’s vulnerability: “The most likely catalyst to derail a rally would come in the form of renewed concern over spending on AI — that is the market’s kryptonite.”
It’s a reminder that even a healthy supercycle can wobble if capital spending appears unsustainable.
December Outlook
December begins with a market that’s bruised, bullish, and uneasily balanced. The AI engine is cooling but far from stalling. The Fed is easing, though not aggressively. Corporate earnings remain solid. And investors — despite a mid-month scare — continue to buy dips, not run from them.
But as November reminded us, momentum alone doesn’t guarantee a smooth final stretch.
And For What It’s Worth…
As reported by ABC News, on November 18 Sotheby’s auctioned off a solid-gold toilet for a whopping $12 million. The 18-karat, 223-pound working toilet sculpture titled "America" was crafted by the Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan -- the same artist who last year sold a banana taped to a wall for $6.2 million.
Lucius Elliott, the head of Contemporary Art Marquee Auctions at Sotheby's, said the toilet is a mirror back to the viewer. "It looks like a toilet, but it also looks nothing like a toilet you have ever seen. It is this glimmering, hulking, gluttonous mass of gold. You see yourself in it, you see the water in it, you see the movement, it's like a mirror of the most decadent sort imaginable."
Elliott added. "This is a European artist making a portrait of America."
If this is how America sees itself, then glamour and absurdity are clearly sharing the same seat — and getting comfortable.
_____
As noted before, long term, the strategies will get the trends right. Short term, there may be a miss or two as the market juggles conflicting signals. So keep allocations of strategies reasonable within your portfolio, and remember that protection remains paramount.
--David
And yet, despite the drama, the bull market bent without breaking. Buyers reemerged, Fed-cut expectations firmed, and Big Tech reclaimed some footing. As of the close on Friday, the Dow and the S&P 500 were basically flat on the month. The Nasdaq took the brunt of it, closing down almost 2%, on track to end a seven-month advance.
November Drivers
- AI stocks — the market’s engine all year — finally sputtered under the weight of valuation fears after months of straight-line enthusiasm. Ironically, it was Nvidia again that stabilized the market. The company delivered strong earnings and “off-the-charts” demand for its Blackwell chips. The stock still sold off — a sign of how jumpy the market had become — but the results helped set a floor under the AI complex.
- At the same time, the interest-rate outlook lurched from confident to conflicted and back again. Powell’s caution that a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion” rattled markets. But follow-up comments from New York Fed President John Williams — “I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term” — revived expectations for a third consecutive cut.
- Market leadership briefly rotated toward banks and cyclicals, but the handoff didn’t stick — investors drifted back to their familiar winners. Mike Santoli, CNBC’s Senior Markets Commentator, noted the market can rise with such concentration, but it rarely rises cleanly.
AI Reality Check
Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities’ Global Head of Technology Research, continues to reject the bubble narrative. Ives argues that with less than 5% of U.S. enterprises meaningfully adopting AI, the runway remains long — and that today’s leaders are generating “hundreds of billions in real revenue,” not vaporware.
His stance is categorical: “This is NOT an AI bubble… we believe this is a 1996 Moment and NOT a 1999 Bubble Moment and remain firmly bullish on tech stocks into year-end and 2026 despite recent investor bearish fears.”
As a caution, IG’s Chief Markets Strategist Chris Beauchamp highlighted the market’s vulnerability: “The most likely catalyst to derail a rally would come in the form of renewed concern over spending on AI — that is the market’s kryptonite.”
It’s a reminder that even a healthy supercycle can wobble if capital spending appears unsustainable.
December Outlook
December begins with a market that’s bruised, bullish, and uneasily balanced. The AI engine is cooling but far from stalling. The Fed is easing, though not aggressively. Corporate earnings remain solid. And investors — despite a mid-month scare — continue to buy dips, not run from them.
But as November reminded us, momentum alone doesn’t guarantee a smooth final stretch.
And For What It’s Worth…
As reported by ABC News, on November 18 Sotheby’s auctioned off a solid-gold toilet for a whopping $12 million. The 18-karat, 223-pound working toilet sculpture titled "America" was crafted by the Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan -- the same artist who last year sold a banana taped to a wall for $6.2 million.
Lucius Elliott, the head of Contemporary Art Marquee Auctions at Sotheby's, said the toilet is a mirror back to the viewer. "It looks like a toilet, but it also looks nothing like a toilet you have ever seen. It is this glimmering, hulking, gluttonous mass of gold. You see yourself in it, you see the water in it, you see the movement, it's like a mirror of the most decadent sort imaginable."
Elliott added. "This is a European artist making a portrait of America."
If this is how America sees itself, then glamour and absurdity are clearly sharing the same seat — and getting comfortable.
_____
As noted before, long term, the strategies will get the trends right. Short term, there may be a miss or two as the market juggles conflicting signals. So keep allocations of strategies reasonable within your portfolio, and remember that protection remains paramount.
--David
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