War? What War? The war with Iran began on Feb. 28. Oil supply lines were disrupted, energy prices soared, inflation fears reemerged, and nervous investors couldn’t sell risk assets fast enough. One month later, all three indices—the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average—were in correction territory. Yet just two weeks after that, on April 15, the market had largely recovered those losses, with the S&P 500 surging to a new record high.
It was a round trip that doesn’t quite add up. A geopolitical shock that blocked a meaningful share of global energy supply—sending crude prices sharply higher—would typically leave a deeper scar on equities. Instead, the market treated it as a temporary disruption: something to be priced quickly, then largely set aside.
That response tells you a lot about what is—and isn’t—driving this market.
It was a round trip that doesn’t quite add up. A geopolitical shock that blocked a meaningful share of global energy supply—sending crude prices sharply higher—would typically leave a deeper scar on equities. Instead, the market treated it as a temporary disruption: something to be priced quickly, then largely set aside.
That response tells you a lot about what is—and isn’t—driving this market.
RSS Feed